The Chilean economic situation remains marked by multiple areas of tension that limit sectoral performance. At the political level, the ongoing debate on structural reforms fuels caution between investors and consumers, generating greater risk premium in expectations. On the economic front, the picture shows moderate growth, accompanied by persistent inflation and upward pressures. In the face of this scenario, central banks choose to act with caution in their monetary policy decisions, prioritizing the goal of price stability.
At the external level, a number of factors exacerbate uncertainty: US trade policy, the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the stagnation of activity in Europe and financial tensions in China represent latent threats. Chile’s high exposure to external shocks accentuates the risk of adverse impacts on domestic inflation.
At the local financial level, interest rates for credit have been significantly higher since 2021 in response to the tightening of monetary policy. These increases raised the cost of housing financing to levels not seen since 2009 and led to the reduction of credit periods, from up to 30 years to 20- 25 years. However, a slight relaxation in long-term rates has been observed in late 2025 and early 2025, allowing the mortgage market to operate under somewhat more favourable conditions. The Central Bank’s Banking Credit Survey confirms that, in the second quarter of 2025, banks do not report significant changes in credit standards for companies, while for consumption some openness is observed.
The labour market also has consequences: during the health crisis, about 2 million jobs were lost, and although the recovery has been gradual and the occupation now exceeds the pre-pandemic figures in some segments, the unemployment rate is still high, estimated at around 8.7% at the end of the second quarter. (Information based on sector reports).
For its part, consumer-business confidence remains low, despite some specific improvements. The Monthly Business Trust Indicator (IMCE), developed by ICARE and the UAI, reflects a persistent perception of pessimism in sectors such as construction, while mining and trade show more optimism. These levels of confidence make investment conditional, as many strategic decisions are postponed until there is greater macroeconomic clarity.
As for the real estate sector, the results of the second quarter of 2025 show mixed signs. Housing sales recorded a modest advance of 1 per cent per year, while demand increased by 23 per cent over the previous quarter. The apartment type houses increased their sales by 2%, while the houses recorded a 3% fall. In parallel, the supply of housing grew 4%, reaching about 108,000 available units (89% departments, 11% houses). The sales speed, however, worsened: it is estimated that it would be necessary about 30 months to exhaust the existing supply, a figure that exceeds the ranges considered to be of balance.
In short, the Chilean economy goes through a period of adjustments and causations. The combination of high rates, political uncertainty, weak expectations and a challenging real estate market puts the actors in waiting mode. Under these conditions, projects capable of tolerating risk and anticipating recovery could capture value.
